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- All Birds | March 4th, 2024
All Birds | March 4th, 2024
TOGETHER WITH
Today’s report is brought to you by Allbirds. Lightweight, bouncy, and wildly comfortable, Allbirds shoes make any outing feel effortless. Slip in, lace up, or slide them on and enjoy the comfy support.
[ good morning ]
Here’s everything you need to know today
As we fully ramp down into the last month of Q1, we're still in that moment of equilibrium where bulls and bears own the price action in equal measure.
This week is mostly about the health of the American consumer as major retailers like Target and Costco report later on. We'll get employment and consumer credit data in the midst of all this too--but this week is more of a preamble to the CPI that will print next Tuesday. With PCE inflation coming in a little cooler in January, bulls are hoping that last month's slightly spicy inflation report was a brief fluke. This really really needs one critical inflation beat to keep going.
At the same time, two months of higher-than-expected inflation can really shake the foundations of this rally. Until the data prints next week, gear up for nothing but volatility as traders hunt for alpha of any kind.
So, let's try to make sense of the small pullback we're seeing in early trading with the most important headlines powering the price action today.
Markets at a Glance
*Market data based on standard trading hours and calculated close to close
[ retail ]
Macy's Hit With Massive Buyout Offer
After a strong earnings call—Macy's would-be buyers had to break out the big guns
BREAKING NEWS
Macy's stock jumped double-digits in early trading after Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital boosted their buyout offer for the retail titan by over $1 billion. The new buyout proposal is valued at $6.6 billion. Can Macy's still refuse this deal?
WHAT HAPPENED
Macy's got some solid lift last week when their management laid out a new vision to get the retailer back on track. Macy's already rejected a buyout bid from Arkhouse and Brigade—signaling that they thought the company was far more valuable. The market responded positively to Macy's new vision for a more luxury-focused and efficient operation.
NEW DEAL
Arkhouse and Brigade have raised the stakes by boosting their initial offer by 14% to around $24/ share for any Macy's stock they don't already own. Macy's management has publicly stated that they will consider the offer. Meanwhile, Arkhouse is also attempting an activist play at Macy's to get more board seats.
WHY IT MATTERS
It was a strong bull signal when Macy's rejected Arkhouse and Brigade's initial lowball offer. This latest proposal still comes in a bit below what Macy's is hoping to accomplish on their own—but it might be too sweet a deal for shareholders to ignore. For now, investors are signaling they like this deal as traders pile onto Macy's stock in early trading. Macy's shares shot up over 16% in early trading.
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Sectors at a Glance
| Sector | Day | Month | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Communications | 0.83% | 0.92% | 45.25% |
| Consumer Disc. | 0.33% | 5.42% | 26.14% |
| Consumer Stap. | 0.01% | 0.36% | 2.93% |
| Energy | 1.16% | 4.98% | 0.41% |
| Financials | -0.12% | 3.95% | 11.89% |
| Health Care | 1.05% | 2.69% | 13.21% |
| Industrials | 0.43% | 5.56% | 17.14% |
| Materials | 0.46% | 8.19% | 4.38% |
| Real Estate | 1.10% | 4.52% | 1.49% |
| Technology | 1.83% | 3.79% | 49.43% |
| Utilities | -0.61% | 1.36% | -6.89% |
*Market data based on standard trading hours and calculated close to close
[ antitrust ]
Apple Stumbles on Latest Antitrust Fine
After being unseated as the world's most valuable company, Apple continues to be in the wilderness
BREAKING NEWS
Apple stock slumped even harder this morning after the EU slammed the tech giant with a near $2 billion antitrust fine for abusing their position at the top of the music-streaming industry.
WHAT HAPPENED
The European Commission levied the €1.8 billion fine as a result of an ongoing investigation into Apple's policies surrounding fees that app developers had to pay. In short: European regulators have concluded that Apple's fees made it all but impossible for independent services to compete with the low prices of Apple Music. This is the first genuine antitrust fine Apple is being forced to pay by the EU and one of the largest anticompetitive rulings ever.
HIT AFTER HIT
Of course—this fine is the result of an investigation the EU started in 2019 after Spotify accused Apple of monopoly behavior. Spotify has been a loud voice in opposition to Apple's app store fees. Streaming services like Spotify used to lose billions of dollars just to have the right to be in the iOS app store. Apple's app store practices have been in the spotlight as the EU has forced the company to also allow developers to create alternative payment methods on iOS. While Apple is fighting these new regulations, it's getting harder and harder for the company to defend their dominant position here.
WHY IT MATTERS
With Apple canceling new initiatives like their Electric Car division and visibly lagging behind Samsung and the rest of the market in the AI race—things are actually starting to turn a little bearish for the stock. Investors are unsure if Apple is going to be able to pull out of this dive with product releases this year. If Apple loses more revenue streams thanks to more antitrust rulings--this could severely hamper Apple's future growth prospects as they pivot to a more services-first model. Investors are signaling more fear than anything as Apple stock fell over 1% in early trading.
[ crypto ]
Crypto Stocks Erupt as Bitcoin Tops $65,000
The Ohio-shaped recovery for BTC continues to gather steam.
BREAKING NEWS
Crypto stocks, altcoins, and anything tangential to the space continued a sharp rally this morning as Bitcoin is now within striking distance of the all-time highs set by the blockchain in 2021.
WHAT HAPPENED
Bitcoin stayed stable above $65,000 after another wave of buy sentiment hit the network over the weekend. Crypto analysts have noted that new, very large buyers are starting to buy more of the cryptocurrency--which fueled more retail buying behavior as well.
PRICE STABILITY
This price action hit despite reports that the Greyscale GBTC ETF had sold thousands of bitcoin tokens amidst the rally. Bitcoin investors are betting on stronger price catalysts once the Bitcoin 'halving' occurs next month. The halving is a technical process on the blockchain where BTC will lower the rewards given to miners. In theory, this limits supply enough to boost the price of BTC--but in practice, this has sometimes just resulted in a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' event on the blockchain. Regardless, a critical mass of investors are pouring back into crypto as bull mania takes hold.
WHY IT MATTERS
With Bitcoin nearing all-time highs and altcoins more than doubling all across the industry, it's starting to look like the positive price action here can actually sustain for an extended period. of course, the Bitcoin halving next month can easily spark a wave of sell pressure across the. blockchain--but the crypto industry looks like it could be stabilizing for real. As bigger and bigger investors enter the space, price movements on the blockchain will become a lot more stable. Investors are betting big on BTC passing through all-time highs in 2024.
Extra Moby Snacks
Super Micro Computer and Decker’s got some solid lift in early trading after the S&P announced on Friday that these two firms will be joining the S&P 500. Whirlpool and Zions Bancorps are leaving the index to make room here.
Spirit Aerosystems popped a little this morning after Boeing confirmed late Friday that they are in talks to buy the ailing parts manufacturer. Spirit was actually a subsidiary spun out of Boeing and is the supplier responsible for a ton of issues with the Boeing 737 Max. Sometimes you succeed by failing, I guess.
TOGETHER WITH
Today’s report is brought to you by Allbirds. Lightweight, bouncy, and wildly comfortable, Allbirds shoes make any outing feel effortless. Slip in, lace up, or slide them on and enjoy the comfy support.
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